Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
It is a down trend based on USD/JPY Long term forecast in daily time frame. With the help of my technical market analysis, I would like to make it easy for new Forex traders to easily identify and see a down trend in USD/JPY daily chart.
So, instead of doing my Elliott wave analysis, today I am going to show you how a simple technical market analysis could show you a bird’s eye view about any Forex currency pair and in any time frame. However; I must mention that higher time frames work much better to forecast and analyze the Forex currency pair charts. They are more powerful and important as well when it comes to define the support and resistance levels on a price chart.
Above is the USD/JPY Long term forecast based on daily time frame which shows us a down trend. Now we can see it is just a plain daily chart without any technical indicator or technical study applied on it. So, it is a bit un-clear to judge which way price is going to move next and when it is going to change the trend?
So, I have now drawn in some trend lines on same price chart of USD/JPY currency pair and below is the result.
A trader could easily notice that trend is bearish based on declining blue colour trend lines. So, based on USD/JPY Long term forecast in daily chart it looks like a down trend and market is probably going to drop down more as indicated by declining blue color trend lines.
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Now, let us make the same chart a little bit more clear by adding resistance levels. Before I move forward I must first tell you my definition of a resistance level.
“A resistance is a price level on a chart which attracts Sellers”
This means, people are more interested to sell aggressively at a resistance area than any other price level on a price chart and thus market falls down. Now, look at the following same daily chart of USD/JPY currency pair with resistance levels, added.
Based on USD/JPY Long term forecast in daily time frame, you could see lower swing highs and lower swing lows. I have drawn in blue color horizontal trend lines to define the resistance areas on a price chart. Now, it looks quite clear that the trend is bearish in USD/JPY currency pair in daily chart as the resistance price levels, keep moving down along with price action.
We can even go one step further by writing down an exact resistance price level on a price chart as shown inside the following same daily chart of USD/JPY currency pair.
Now, we have successfully defined a resistance area and the value is 111.47. So, we can now assume with high probability that trend is bearish in USD/JPY daily chart and we have an important resistance level present at 111.47 price level.
This means, it is a good idea to look for a possible sell trading opportunity at or around 108.66 price level. I must mention that it is a down trend going on in daily chart of USD/JPY. So, as long as price stays below 111.47 resistance level in USD/JPY daily time frame, you should not be looking for a buy trading chance as it would be against the existing bearish market trend. My whole trading idea is to first define the market trend. Next, look for trading opportunities that goes in the favour of market trend.
Now, when an existing bearish trend in USD/JPY is going to fail?
Well, the forecast is good for about next two weeks time and if price of USD/JPY currency pair breaks above the 111.47 resistance level then current bearish trend could end. At that point and time, we may need to re-analyze the daily chart price action of USD/JPY currency pair.
I hope above explanation of technical analysis is clear so far. So, let me move forward and show you same chart with technical indicators and what the indicators are currently suggesting about the future price direction of USD/JPY currency pair.
Below is the same USD/JPY daily chart with MACD, using standard settings of 12, 26 and 9.
Let me first explain about convergence, before I explain what is going on in above daily chart of USD/JPY with standard MACD settings.
In simple words, “Convergence” means that price moves in one direction and technical indicator moves in the same direction. Out of many, one benefit of using MACD is to find out if there is a convergence present on a price chart or not? So, with the help of MACD convergence we can easily identify a possible trend confirmation in an existing bullish trend or bearish trend before we actually participate in the market, with a high probability.
So, USD/JPY daily chart MACD is currently bearish and below its zero level which supports the bearish USD/JPY Long term forecast. Now, we could also notice bearish convergence between MACD and bearish USD/JPY daily chart price action. It is very clear that price of USD/JPY daily chart is moving down, printing lower swing highs and lower swing lows. And MACD is also moving down in same price direction as indicated by the blue color trend lines on MACD and price chart.
So, a MACD bearish convergence suggests that USD/JPY is going to continue moving down in coming trading days. I must also mention that some times, convergence with MACD also fails like any other indicator or market trading approach.
USD/JPY Long term forecast suggests a down trend for next two weeks time and traders could look for a possible sell trading chance at or around 108.63 price level. Bearish convergence is present with MACD in daily time frame which suggests that we could see further bearish price action in USD/JPY daily chart in coming trading days. If price rise and closes a bullish candlestick above 111.47 resistance level then down trend is going to end. In such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the market and re-create USD/JPY Long term forecast in daily time frame. Forex traders who don’t have a broker yet or wish to go with a broker that works well then click here.
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