Based on technical analysis the bearish trend is present in AUD/NZD currency pair, 4 hours time frame based on AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast. As I have forecasted few hours ago, the price of AUD/NZD pair is going to drop lower now on a short-term basis to prints a Bearish Double Zig Zag corrective Elliott wave pattern and traders should look for a sell trade. So, all those Forex traders who have followed my analysis have made the right decision as price has descended.
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Strong key resistance level is present at 1.1016 price area which is the termination point of bullish wave c corrective leg. In my judgment, price action in AUD/NZD currency pair is now falling down to prints a Bearish corrective wave d leg and after that expects a short term bullish leg, wave e. So, market is going to remain bullish on a short term basis. Next, expects a top and a drop as well. Based on Elliott wave analysis, the current bearish price action is part of a Bearish Double Zig Zag corrective wave pattern which is part of a higher degree corrective Bearish X wave Zig Zag Elliott Wave pattern.
Currently, Bearish Elliott wave pattern wave e looks in-complete. So, a good idea is to look for a possible sell trading chance to join the down trend around 1.0975 price area. However; if the price of AUD/NZD currency pair breaks above 1.1016 vital resistance level then up trend is going to end. In such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the Forex market and re-do the AUD/NZD Elliott wave analysis in four hours chart.
Now, at this point; I must acknowledge that the trend is also bearish in higher time frame of AUD/NZD currency pair.
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Below is the daily chart of AUD/NZD pair with my Elliott wave analysis which shows us a big picture and a well started bearish trend as well.
To me; price has printed Bullish Double Zig Zag leg. Now, price action is falling down to complete the Bearish Zig Zag wave X corrective wave pattern. Now, market is moving down overall to complete the corrective wave X leg. The bearish wave X leg is the last and final decline and price is going to prints a bottom after that. Within the Bearish Double Zig Zag corrective wave X pattern, all sub-waves must sub-divides into a corrective 3, 3 and 3 waves pattern.
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The following Elliott Wave Bearish Double Zig Zag corrective pattern diagram shows us a completed Bearish double Zig Zag pattern within the frame work of Elliott wave principle.
The Double bearish Zig Zag wave pattern of the Elliott wave principle shows that how price action does not moves in a straight line fashion but in a series of highs (rises) and lows (retracements). Bearish double Zig Zag Elliott wave pattern in a down trending market could be seen inside the above image. The figure shows what a double Bearish Zig Zag wave pattern looks like. If a trader knows what a bearish double Zig Zag looks like, then it would become much easy for a currency trader to actually analyze the Forex charts and make a trading decision as well.
A Bearish double Zig Zag consists of two Zig Zags Elliott wave patterns, joined by an X wave. We use W English alphabet to label first Zig Zag wave leg and we use Y English alphabet to label second Zig Zag wave leg. Please take a note that Zig Zag pattern is a corrective Elliott wave pattern which appears at a pull back in a main market trend and so the double Zig Zag.
Based on my AUD/NZD technical analysis using Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast in daily chart, we have got an in-complete Bearish double Zig Zag corrective pattern at wave X location. Now, price action is probably going to move sideways and then falls down more to start printing the Bearish corrective wave X leg. To me; in four hours chart of AUD/NZD currency pair the bullish leg – wave e which is part of an X wave in yellow color in price action is just a pull back in a down trend as mentioned above as wave X corrective pattern inside a four hours price chart.
Strong key resistance level is present at 1.1171 price area in AUD/NZD daily chart. So, I expect market to first rise up a little bit more and then start the decline to print bearish Double Zig Zag wave X leg pattern. So, in my opinion market is going to remain sideways and then resume the down trend in AUD/NZD currency pair, in daily chart.
Now, when an existing bearish Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast in AUD/NZD is going to fail?
Well, the forecast is good for about next two weeks time and should stays below 1.1171 resistance area in daily time frame to keep the down trend alive. A clear bullish break out in price action above 1.1171 resistance area will end the down trend and bearish Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast and in such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the market and re-analyze AUD/NZD daily chart.
Based on AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast the trend is down in daily chart and a good idea is to look for a sell trade around 1.0885 price area, as price is going to drop more towards 1.0710 but a clear bullish break out in price action above 1.1171 vital resistance area will end the down trend. On a medium term basis, it is a bearish trend in AUD/NZD 4 hours time frame and a good idea is to take a sell trade around 1.0975 price level and price is probably going to first rise up towards 1.0975 price level. However; if the price of AUD/NZD currency pair breaks below 1.1016 vital resistance level then bearish trend is going to end.
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