Based on technical analysis the bearish trend is present in AUD/USD currency pair, 4 hours time frame based on AUD/USD Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast. As I have forecasted few hours ago, the price of AUD/USD pair is going to drop now to prints a Bearish Impulse Elliott wave pattern and traders should look for a sell trade. So, all those Forex traders who have followed my Elliott wave forecast have made the right decision as price has descended.
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Strong key resistance level is present at 0.7314 price area which is the termination point of Bearish Impulse wave i leg. In my judgment, price action in AUD/USD currency pair is now to going to drop more. So, market is going to remain bearish on a medium term basis. Next, expects a short term bottom in price action as well. Based on Elliott wave forecast, the current Bearish trend is part of a Bullish Impulse Elliott Wave pattern, wave 3 leg in higher time frame.
Currently, Bearish impulse Elliott wave pattern wave iii looks in-complete. So, a good idea is first wait for the market to rise and then look for a possible sell trading chance to join the down trend around 0.7180 price area. However; if the price of AUD/USD currency pair breaks above 0.7314 vital resistance level then down trend is going to end. In such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the Forex market and re-do the AUD/USD Elliott wave analysis in four hours chart.
Now, at this point; I must acknowledge that the trend is also bearish in higher time frame of AUD/USD currency pair.
Below is the daily chart of AUD/USD pair with my Elliott wave forecast which shows us a big picture and a well started bearish trend as well.
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To me; price has printed Bullish corrective wave 2 leg. Now, price action is falling down to complete the Bearish impulse wave 3 pattern. So, now market is moving down on a long term basis to complete the bearish impulse wave 3 leg. The bearish impulse wave 3 leg is the not the last and final decline and price is going to prints a short term bottom after that. Within the Bearish Impulse Elliott wave pattern, all sub-waves must sub-divides into 5, 3, 5 3 and 5 waves pattern.
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The following Elliott Wave Bearish Impulse pattern diagram shows us a completed Bearish Impulse Wave pattern within the frame work of Elliott wave principle.
The Bearish Impulse Wave pattern of the Elliott wave principle shows that how price action does not moves in a straight line fashion but in a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Bearish Impulse Elliott wave pattern in a down trending market could be seen inside the above image. The figure shows what a Bearish Impulse Elliott wave pattern looks like. If a trader knows what a Bearish Impulse Wave pattern looks like, then it would become much easy for a currency trader to actually analyze the Forex charts and make a trading decision as well.
A Bearish Impulse Wave consists of total five waves. Three bearish leg in the favour of down trend and two bullish corrective Elliott wave patterns, against the down market trend. We use numbers to label impulse waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and inside wave 2 and 4, we use English alphabets to label corrective wave structures. Please take a note that Bearish Impulse Wave pattern is a motive Elliott wave pattern which appears at a trending market environment and moves in the favour of larger down market trend.
Based on my AUD/USD technical analysis using Elliott Wave in daily chart, we have got a complete Bullish corrective wave 2 leg and price action is now falling down to prints bearish wave 3 impulse leg. However; it is possible if price breaks above blue colour resistance line then forecast will become in-valid. Now, price action is probably going to move sideways and then fall down more to prints a bearish impulse wave 3 leg. To me; in four hours chart of AUD/USD currency pair the bullish leg – wave ii corrective pattern which is part of a higher degree wave 3 bearish leg in daily chart is just a bullish pull back in a down trend leg as mentioned above as wave 3 impulse wave pattern inside a daily price chart.
Strong key resistance level is present at 0.7642 price area in AUD/USD daily chart. So, I expect market to first move sideways for next coming trading days and then may be starts the decline. So, in my opinion market is going to remain bearish overall and on a medium to long term basis, expects a bearish leg in market. Next, market is probably going to resume the down trend after that in AUD/USD currency pair, in daily chart.
Now, when an existing Bearish Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast in AUD/USD is going to fail?
Well, the forecast is good for about next two weeks time and price should stays below 0.7642 resistance area in daily time frame to keep the down trend alive. A clear bullish out in price action above 0.7642 resistance area will end the down trend and bearish Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast; in such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the market and re-analyze GBP/USD daily chart.
Based on GBP/USD Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast the trend is down in daily chart and a good idea is to look for a sell trade around 0.7053 price area, as price is going to drop more towards 0.6700 but a clear bullish break out in price action above 0.7642 vital resistance area will end the down trend. On a medium term basis, it is a bearish trend in GBP/USD 4 hours time frame and a good idea is to take a sell trade around 0.7180 price level and price is probably going to drop lower towards 0.7000 price level. However; if the price of GBP/USD currency pair breaks above 0.7314 vital resistance level then bearish trend is going to end.
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