A limited rally in February but crucial
Although the US dollar rallies in February were mostly limited against the other seven main currencies except the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, it also fell against the pound, which is the best performing currency in February, The majority of these gains during the last week of February, but we can not deny the importance of those rises for the following reasons:
(1) that the February close on the rise makes it the first monthly increase of the US dollar after two consecutive months of declines that began last December and then extended to January, and came to an end in February.
(2) to return to pre-December and the decline of the dollar, the US dollar index has seen a long wave of gains over the past nine months, during which the index rose by 9% of its value and succeeded during that wave of above the levels of 95.15, which was the last summit, October 2017.
(3) Now the last major summit of the US dollar index recorded last December around the levels of 97.70, which if it penetrates the top, for the first time – since the summit of December 2016 – the monthly time frame will be a full-fledged upward trend.
(4) The most significant events on the US dollar calendar last month, beginning with the better-than-expected monthly jobs report in the US, ending with the preliminary reading of the quarterly growth in US gross domestic product, which was announced last Friday to surprise markets by 2.6% Is much better than the 2.2% forecast and 0.4% above the median forecast, and amidst all this is beginning to break even more complicated trade tensions between the US and China, as well as the main motive behind recent pessimistic assessments of a decline in global growth during the third year Which has been warned by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and many respected international institutions. prompting the United States to delay the imposition of more tariffs on Chinese goods estimated at 200 billion US dollars until further notice
(6) In the event of an effective and sustainable agreement between the United States and China, we will be able to see real market interaction in the form of improved investment rates, improved commodity prices, consumer confidence and continued wage growth, Has been an improvement on inflation, the magic word the Fed is waiting for to move towards further tightening monetary policy.
If this is achieved, this means that we may see further gains for the US dollar over the next few months, and we should not lose sight of the fact that the other major currencies are already weak and we will see this in two examples, the Euro and the Pound Sterling.
We must admit that the UK’s exit from the EU is a burden on the fragile economic growth of the old continent, which has suffered from the uncertainty that resulted from this decision, and can be seen by the naked eye, given the survey of the German Business Climate IFO – The euro zone – the index will find a steady decline over the past five consecutive months, however, and in light of the lack of liquidity, especially in countries with high debt ratios, led by the Italian banking sector, is expected to remain the European Central zero interest rates for a period of time Longer than expected In an effort to help inflation improve, and if the ECB injects more liquidity by extending or expanding the long-term targeted refinancing program, we will see more antagonism in monetary policy between the US and central European Fed, Which will ultimately be in the interest of the dollar and at the expense of the weak euro.
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The best performing currency in February and higher is risk.
Despite the UK’s exit negotiations from the EU and its political complexities, which have not yet achieved any successes that would drive the markets to meaningful optimism, last month the British Pound appreciated against all major currencies without any exceptions.
In front of the House of Representatives, on the seriousness of access to the unorganized exit from the European Union, the markets were overly optimistic to talk about postponing the deadline for the deadline for the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union on March 29, which, although An event that may help the UK government take more time to negotiate and find solutions, we must not deny the difficulty because of political congestion, the current government’s further resignations, and demands for the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May itself once the current phase of negotiations is over.
On this basis, and despite the consistency of the general economic indicators, and in light of the continuing uncertainty, we see the risk of a sudden and violent fall in the pound if a deal to regulate the UK’s exit from the EU fails.
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