It is an up trend based on EUR/USD Long term forecast in daily time frame. With the help of my technical market analysis, I would like to make it easy for new Forex traders to easily identify and see an up trend in EUR/USD daily chart.
So, instead of doing my Elliott wave analysis, today I am going to show you how a simple technical market analysis could show you a bird’s eye view about any Forex currency pair and in any time frame. However; I must mention that higher time frames work much better to forecast and analyze the Forex currency pair charts. They are more powerful and important as well when it comes to define the support and resistance levels on a price chart.
Above is the EUR/USD Long term forecast based on daily time frame which shows us an up trend. Now we can see it is just a plain daily chart without any technical indicator or technical study applied on it. So, it is a bit un-clear to judge which way price is going to move next and when it is going to change the trend?
So, I have now drawn in some trend lines on same price chart of EUR/USD currency pair and below is the result.
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A trader could easily notice that trend is bullish based on rising green colour trend lines. So, based on EUR/USD Long term forecast in daily chart it looks like an up trend and market is probably going to rise up more as indicated by rising green color trend lines.
Now, let us make the same chart a little bit more clear by adding support levels. Before I move forward I must first tell you my definition of a support level.
“A support is a price level on a chart which attracts Buyers”
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This means, people are more interested to buy aggressively at a support area than any other price level on a price chart and thus market moves up. Now, look at the following same daily chart of EUR/USD currency pair with support levels, added.
Based on EUR/USD Long term forecast in daily time frame, you could see higher swing highs and higher swing lows. I have drawn in green color horizontal trend lines to define the support areas on a price chart. Now, it looks quite clear that the trend is bullish in EUR/USD currency pair in daily chart as the support price levels, keep moving up along with price action.
We can even go one step further by writing down an exact support price level on a price chart as shown inside the following same daily chart of EUR/USD currency pair.
Now, we have successfully defined a support area and the value is 1.1119. So, we can now assume with high probability that trend is bullish in EUR/USD daily chart and we have an important support level present at 1.1119 price level.
This means, it is a good idea to look for a possible buy trading opportunity at or around 1.4426 price level. I must mention that it is an up trend going on in daily chart of EUR/USD. So, as long as price stays above 1.1119 support level in EUR/USD daily time frame, you should not be looking for a sell trading chance as it would be against the existing bullish market trend.My whole trading idea is to first define the market trend. Next, look for trading opportunities that goes in the favour of market trend.
Now, when an existing bullish trend in EUR/USD is going to fail?
Well, the forecast is good for about next two weeks time and if price of EUR/USD currency pair breaks below the 1.1119 support level then current bullish trend could end. At that point and time, we may need to re-analyze the daily chart price action of EUR/USD currency pair.
I hope above explanation of technical analysis is clear so far. So, let me move forward and show you same chart with technical indicators and what the indicators are currently suggesting about the future price direction of EUR/USD currency pair.
Below is the same EUR/USD daily chart with MACD, using standard settings of 12, 26 and 9.
Let me first explain about divergence, before I explain what is going on in above daily chart of EUR/USD with standard MACD settings.
In simple words, “Divergence” means that price moves in one direction and technical indicator moves in an opposite direction. Out of many, one benefit of using MACD is to find out if there is a divergence present on a price chart or not?. So, with the help of MACD divergence we can easily identify a possible reversal in an existing bullish trend or bearish trend before market actually reverses, with a high probability.
So, EUR/USD daily chart MACD is currently bullish and above its zero level which support the bullish EUR/USD Long term forecast. Now, we could also notice bearish divergence between MACD and bullish EUR/USD daily chart price action. It is very clear that price of EUR/USD daily chart is moving up, printing higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Where as; MACD is printing lower highs and lower lows and indicated by the blue color trend lines on MACD and price chart.
So, a MACD bearish divergence suggests that a top in price chart of EUR/USD currency pair is most likely going to appear in coming trading days. However; this is just a forecast and not a sell trading signal as MACD divergence suggests weakness in an existing up trend.
I must also mention that some times, divergence with MACD also fails like any other indicator or market trading approach.
EUR/USD Long term forecast suggests an up trend for next two weeks time and traders could look for a possible buy trading chance at at or around 1.4426 price level. Bearish divergence is present with MACD in daily time frame which suggests that we could see a bearish reversal in EUR/USD daily chart in coming trading days. So, if price falls down and closes a bearish candlestick below 1.1119 support level then up trend is going to end. In such a market scenario, it would be best not to trade the market and re-create EUR/USD Long term forecast in daily time frame.
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